Sunday, August 7, 2011

The Market is Oversold, But I Expect It To Continue Down

So the macro risk premium just when up on all stocks.    Especially hard hit will be financials and government budget related budget cut items like: Defense and Healthcare.   

Given the macro market selloffs  where all stocks drop expect significant opportunity to buy "Good" stocks with real earnings.    Additionally, I would estimate there will lower lows for stocks with significant dividend protection.  

Below is how I rank my equity holdings.   I also realize I need to do less diversification and more focus as well.    This is still pretty rough however, but necessary for my sanity as this high risk week starts.   



1 ACCUMULATE

2 BUY ON PULBACKS
3 HOLD

4 SELL ON PULLBACKS
5 SELL


RANKING DIVIDEND EST. COMMENTS




FTEXX 1 CASH CASH IS KING
FDRXX 1 CASH CASH IS KING
HRVIX 4 MED CAP DROPS WITH ENTIRE MARKET
HIINX 3 INTERNATIONAL DROP EXPECTED BUT BETTER OVERALL 
FCNTX 2 CONTRA PROBABLY GOOD
FDIVX 2 DIV STOCKS LARGE DIV STOCKS PROBABLY GOOD. 
FFKEX 3 2030 AMBIVALENT
JMCVX 4 MIDCAP DOWN WITH REST OF MARKET
OAKBX 3 BOND + INCOME LESS VOLITITLITY
SPHIX 4 CORP DEBT CORPORATIONS BETTER THEN ALL




ABT 2 5.00% DIVIDEND PROTECTED, HEALTH CARE CUT HIT
BDX 2 2.00% SLIGHT DIVIDEND PROTECTED, MED COMMODITY




AA 4 1.20% COMMODITIES DROPPING
NUE 3 5.00% DIVIDEND IS COMPELLING.    INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH?
BA 3 2.00% DEFENSE CUTS EMINENT, AIRPLANES UP.   
GE 3 3.00% LARGE DEBT STILL
DD 3 3.00% AGRICULTURE AND CHEMICAL LINKED
GM 4 0.00% NO DIVIDEND SO MOVING LOWER.




NBR 3 1.00% WHY DOES THIS GAS STOCK SUCK
BP 3 4.00% GOOD DIVIDEND
CHK120111C35 3 0.00% NEW FINDS IN UTICA SHALE
ADES 1 0.00% MEETS LIBERAL AGENDAS AND REGULATIONS
GSFVF 3 0.00% ENVIRONMENT ISSUES ARE A PRIORITY AFTER YOU HAVE A STEADY ECONOMY
NAT 3 6.60% TOO LOW TO SELL.   STILL A GOOD DIV.  IS DIV SAFE?
ESLR 5 0.00% THIS STOCK JUST SUCKS.    WHEN WILL IT DISAPPEAR
KFN 2 8.20% MAKES MONEY UP OR DOWN AND HAS GOOD DIVIDEND
TBTC36120121 4 0.00% SHORT TERM LOWER MEDIUM TERM FLAT LONG TERM SHARPLY HIGHER
BAC 5 1.00% MACRO AND MICRO MISMANAGEMENT A NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT 4 MONTH/LOW PRICE
AXP 3.5 1.50% GREAT FRANCHISE BUT DIVIDEND AND FINANCIAL ASSOCIATIONS MIGHT BUSH LOWER








ADSK111022 4 0.00% OPTION IS WORTHLESS RIGHT NOW SO WHY SELL?




UPS 2 3.00% GOING LOWER SLIGHTLY 
CSX 2 2.00% GOING LOWER SLIGHTLY 




DIS 3 1.10% GREAT FRANCHISE BUT EXPECT LOWER TO GO.




LOW 1 1.00% LOWER DIVIDEND, BUT 2012 CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SHOULD BE STABILIZING
PEP 1 3.00% STEADY SECULAR GROWTH EXPECTED
KO 1 3.00% STEADY SECULAR GROWTH EXPECTED




ED 1 4.00% GREAT DIVIDEND AND NON CORRELATED COMPANY




VZ 2 5.60% GREAT DIVIDEND AND SHOULD BE A SLOWER THAN NORMAL DROP

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