Sold 50 Shares of KFN, Bought 50 of PM, Looking to buy more GE and UPS

And when the fed legislatives start failing on talks I expect to sell SPY Put and GLD Calls.

Sold 5 AXP130119C52.5; Bought 2 -SPY130216P138

Sold 50 shares of NUE and Bought 2 Feb 138 SPY Puts

I am betting on the market going down next week.    Ordinarily, I do not like to bet on timing but this on seems strangely clear that there will be more "hair" on the Democrat and Republican fiscal cliff love fest.

TDAY Bounce While Congress is on Vacation.

I am going to be ready to sell at the end of the day tomorrow.    I am thinking some amounts of NUE and and possibly UPS may get sold given the bounce with no substantial changes or fixes.....

Bought 50 Shares of KO - THE SALE CONTINUES

I imagine that next week will likely be an up week given congress will not confuse the market.     After thanksgiving I am expecting some more down days and possibly a capitulation till right before XMAS.    I do not want to be left out of the XMAS Sale.   

Predictably Stormy Water with Continued Storminess for the Near Future

Finally some volatility

I think the last 6 month have been masking this background noise - EU, US, China, Brazil issues.    But, I am not going to wait around too long to buy.     A santa claus rally could be around the corner and if the budget cliff gets solved then there is going to be little reason to be out of stocks.    

Sold 2 SPY Dec 2012 145.000 put (SPY121222P00145000) at 7.79

I am think there will be a correction to the upside soon....

The Debt Cliff - This will be an Opportunity not a Liability

The easy way for congress to get out of the debt cliff will be to kick the can down the road.    This will also benefit wall street in the short term by continuing the waste stimulus. 

If congress agrees we also win.    Wall street will think there is concensus on how to solve these hard problems.

If congress fails to act that will be the worst case scenario.    This will pull wall street down significantly.     I am not sure many will vote for incumbents after a screw up like that however.

Bought 50 Shares of BK Today

Looks like a bumpy ride in the near term

Bought 20 EEM, 50 KO, and sold 100 KFN

Old Cramer Suggestions by Sector May Still be Valid

Let me know if you have any better ideas for these sectors?



1. Aerospace: Cramer recommended Boeing (BA), Honeywell (HON), and Precision Cast Parts (PCP).
2. Oil and Gas: Baker Hughes (BHI), Schlumberger (SLB), Weatherford International (WFT), and Halliburton (HAL).
3. Trucks: Cummins (CMI).
4. Plastics: Dow Chemical (DOW) and Airgas (ARG).
5. High-end Retail: Tiffany (TIF), Coach (COH), Nordstrom (JWN), VF Corp. (VFC), and Phillips Van Heusen (PVH).
6. Agriculture: Potash (POT), DuPont (DD).
7. Technology: Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Google (GOOG).

Bought 1 AAPL Apr 2013 630.000 call

Cant believe this stock trades at below a PE of 15?  

Bought 500 Shares of GSFVF - Trade Based on Technicals Only

The volatility lately has been extreme.    Additionally, this stock now seems like it has become inversely correlated to the indexes.    I would guess that on down days large players who must buy are buying these small caps.    Let me know if you have a better reason?

Macro Market Update - Third Quarter Closing

Stocks just seem expensive with the DOW at short and medium term highs.    Strange but this story is much the same as in April of this year.    The notable addition seem the US Fiscal Cliff.

The Bears Team:

1. US Fiscal Cliff
1. Automatic Cuts to the budget
1. Defense
2. Social Programs
2. If congress screws this up and the Keynesian spending is pulled look for another hit and decelleration of GDP.   Hayekian cuts will start.    
1. Likely outcome will be for new congress to kick the can again.
2. Middle East and OIL:
1. Limited War with Iran over Sanctions
1. We sanctioned Japan before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor so we should not be surprised if another war in on the horizon with Iran
2. Israel is waiting for the opportunity to scuttle Iran Nukes.
3. United States still assumes role as world policeman.    After Arab Spring there is probably more government risk in Iran to remain at peace. 
4. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again. 
2. Oil is in the middle of its latest range $80 -$100 dollar range.   
3. Middle East - Arab Spring is settling in.    
1. Syria is the last festering overthrow to move forward.   
2. Iran and Arab Peninsula have still been untouched - Jordan, Bahrain, Iran.....
3. No actual negatives besides the Libyian Consolate Attack.
3. De-leveraging 
1. EU Issues:
1. Hungary on the verge of bail out.
2. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent given their lack of credibility!  Will EU and IMF kick the can down the street again or kick Greece out of the EU and devalue ate the Drachma.
3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurrance of Greece unresolved issues? 
4. Spain is immenent to ask for another bailout.
5. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
6. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
7. Earnings are starting to slow. 
8. EU continues to just spend its way out of Banking issues.   The shell game will have to get resolved soon.   Every 3 month we start with problems in Greece then Italy then Portugal then Ireland and finally Spain. 
9. Leveraged buybacks of bonds which are internally purchased are just kicking the can down the road.  
10. Who's currency is going to drop the fastest and enjoy the export boom.    All first world econonies are trying this move.
2. US State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
3. China Real Estate Bubble starting to top.    Will this migrate to banks anytime soon.
1. Communists are managing this pretty well, but how long can you hide these issues. 
2. Decelleration of the economy really starting to set in.
4. QEIII starting with more of the QEII stuff to continue into 2015.
1. Operation Twist will likely continue with interest rates near all time lows..
5. Emerging Market Interest Rates are Up but in a flattening or downward trajectory
6. Where are the Rogue States:
1. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR? 
2. Iran - Israel strikes eminent?
3. Venezuela
4. Russia
7. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
2. How will the US continue to lower its currency in the face of downward competition on developed currencies.
8. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
9. Market Volatility From Past Bubbles..   Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while. 
10. Market has had a run since the March 2009 lows.
1.  There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
2. Since October 2011 we are up huge.   
3. A downturn is expected.
11. US political risk should be getting larger as we move into 2nd half of 2012.
12. Recession in Europe is starting to take hold without EU Stimuli.

The Bull Team:

1. Money flows are back to stocks as the bond market looks like it will be dying for years to come.    Lower rates are not very feasible at these historically low rates.
2. US Stocks are having some momentum and money around the world is moving into US Equities.   
3. EU keeps handling the situation even if at the last minute - Anxiety over a year can not remain heightened.
4. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!   Just because yield keep dropping does not mean they will.   Besides how low can they go.
2. Real Estate - Starting to move up.
1. Home builders and infrasture stocks starting noticable upward trajectory.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.   Levels do seem speculatively high at the current time.
5. Unemployment is near 8.2% for first time in years and there continues to be increase employment numbers repeatedly.    Numbers are still rising at a slow rate. 
6. Economic Activity is starting to happen but at like 2-3% increased level expectations now from 1% 6 months ago.
7. Bernanke has great wisdom about depressions and has a calming effect on the market.
1. rates low for an extended time period is predictable and great for business makers.
8. Political Democrat vs. Republican - gridlock means no new regulations or business environment changes.
1. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
9. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budget.  
10. Corporate Earnings still good in the US. 
11. WIKILEAKS seems to be quite and soon to be erased by legal means of the EU and US.

Desperately Seeking Infrastructure Stock

Currently they are overvalued for a reason.    VMC, MLM, CX, KBH, Etc.

Started New Position in BK

I need additional bank shares and this one has a 2.3% dividend and is not a mega bank.    I am done with BAC but may consider WLC.     I will buy more BK if prices drop some.

Waiting for a 5% correction to sell the spy puts

I believe the DOW would be at approximately 12700 then.

Bought 2 SPY Dec 2012 145.000 puts

Wondering when the circus in EU will resume.    August vacations are coming to an end.

Sold 100 Shares of CSX

Market seems toppy and need to sell something while the getting out is good. 

Sold 50 Shares of PEP

PEP has a PEG of 3.7ish.     That is starting to look really expensive when considering its growth rate.    I still like the stock long term and will be buying more at lower levels.

I sold 50 shares of PM at 90.3

Want to make sure I have some $$ available for the next market oops by EU US or the BRICs.      Phillip Morris has had a good run and I am not understanding how they will keep the run moving.   This is a quality stock that treats its stockholders right so it is hard for me to sell.   

Bought an aapl January 600 call for 53.2 SOLD at 55.7 Aug 8

7/24/12 - Let's see if the casino trade works. I believe iPad sales will be stronger than expected.


8/3/12 - Well this trade did not work out at all as expected.    I think the market is weird right now and I expect some churning with the EU to start now that the optimistic earnings season is done.   Also, I feel lucky this option climbed out of the 40% decline and now I made 4% in one week.   I am thankful and hopefully I will not regret APPL getting away from me. 

What I learned from this Trade:

1. Dont trade apple before earnings season.   There is too much typically a week down at earnings and after earnings.     Really there is less risk buying directly after earnings season.
2. Buying and sellling during around earnings announcements is really entering the casino.    The real advantage to buying stocks is there is an inherit advantage originating from their inherit value.

From here on out I am going to try to get some more appl in the mid 40s again.     I do think there earnings can not be held down forever.

Time to Buy GLD? - EU, US Fiscal Cliff, BRICs Dropping

If we are expected another recession wouldn't gold be the place to be? 

Need to check new Indian Luxury Taxes and why Indians are not buyers anymore.    Chinese are buying and that one of the few safe investments available for chinese currently.    Thoughts?

I have not acted on this thought yet. Timing is everything with this trade. I think the market needs to get worse and safe haven bonds in Germany, US, etc need to become less safe. I think that is suggesting more inflation is needed to make this trade feasible... 

So probably waiting for some inflation....

Time to Buy GLD? - EU, US Fiscal Cliff, BRICs Dropping

If we are expected another recession wouldn't gold be the place to be?   

Need to check new Indian Luxury Taxes and why Indians are not buyers anymore.    Chinese are buying and that one of the few safe investments available for chinese currently.    Thoughts?

What is a BUY with EU and China Having Issues?

Banks?   EU exposure could still bring the group down, but in most cases there is still a severe discount existing.
Gold  - The US currency has replaced the yellow metal as a safe haven.   Will that change when the Budget Cliff starts to be discounted into the market.
Materials Stocks - How Low can they go?

Sold 100 Shares of GE

Stock seems to have been hovering around its 52 week high for way too long.    Have the fundamentals for GE really changed that much or are people just relying on the dividend stability?   Let me know your thoughts?

What Bull Market Positives are Left Out There?

Positives:
1.   Earnings Season though positive will likely be positive again

Negatives:
1. Summer Duldrums stuck in low Volumes
2.  China's Degrading Market
3.  EU Political Indecision and Lack of Committment
4.  US Budget Cliff / Temp Tax Cuts / Lack of Political Consensus


I would suppose this means we are in a Bear Market for some time?    Thoughts?

Wow if last year is a blueprint for this July watch out BELOW!