Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Sold 50 Shares of CAT

I also put a limit order in to buy back the shares at like 89.1.    I like this stock a lot but question its growth being stronger than GOOG or AAPL.    Its PE is in the 30s where AAPL and GOOG are in the mid to low 20s.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Sold 100 shares of GE

I am getting nervous given stock buying has been going on so long.    I see market timing as the primary reason for cautious selling.    Additionally, in GEs case there is a lot of debt which will take a long time to unwind therefore restricting growth in the near future.   

Any thoughts?

Friday, December 17, 2010

Bull Market Enigma - What is a Value Anymore?

BAC
ABT
PEP
CSX

Not sure where to put the cash right now?     What a great problem to have.   Maybe now is the time to buy real estate?

ADES is Kicking ASS!

Probably has about 2 more points to go.    If the interference from lawsuits disappears there are few reasons for downward pressure left.   

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Potential Buys - ABT, BRK-B, AAPL AMZN Call Options, NAT

What do most of these stocks have in common.    They are all VALUE stocks.   The market has gone up so much that growth stocks are getting too expensive.   That is why I would suggest AAPL and AMZN Call options as there is limited down sides as well. 


Any better ideas, let me know???

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

DOW NASDAQ - Bears Vs. Bulls - Will the Financial Press Push Fear or Greed Next.

Feels like we are waiting to break out above or going to have a garden variety pullback.    Under these conditions it might make most sense to buy CALL Options.    You tie up less money and hedge yourself in case there is a large move up. 

The Bears Team:
  1. WIKILEAKS and Internet mischief with Mastercard
  2. Market is high and there is a long way down in investors minds.
  3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurance of Greece unresolved issues?   
  4. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
  5. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"   
  6. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
  7. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
  8. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR?
  9. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
  10. Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
  11. Market is at a 12 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.    There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
  12. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
  13. Investors remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while.

The Bull Team:
  1. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?
  2. Need more detail of how much though.
  3. QEII - Stimulative Spending II is a go.   The economy seems to be moving and this bill will likely put us over on stimulus.
  4. Earnings are getting better
  5. Unemployment is starting to firm.
  6. EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
  7. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
  8. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
  9. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
  10. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
  11. Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise after Irelands latest downgrade.   

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Is ABT and BAC a Value or Just CHEAP?

I could really us some outside inputs here?

BAC Buy?
  1. Sell - Likely drop further if there is further economic contagion in Europe or other bond downgrades of blue states like California.
  2. Buy - Getting capitalized like never before in the last few years.
  3. Buy - Housing has bottomed.    Therefore future foreclosures will be higher priced and easier to unload.
  4. Buy - Price is near a 26 week low.
ABT
  1. Buy - Price is near a 26 week low.
  2. Buy - This is one of the most recommended analyst stocks of the year?
  3. Buy - Will not likely continue lower in a bear market as it is low
  4. Sell - Lawsuit risk 128 million or so.    Large amount.    Need more research here.

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