Buy In June and Sing a Tune?

Previously I suggested buying at DOW 12300.     We are getting real close to this level and I continue to ponder purchases.    I have bought some more CAT so far.    However, I still have a 20% cash position and I think I continue to wait on Europe to explode at least for a little while so I can do some deep discount buying.   What are you going to do?


The Bears Team:

1. EU Issues:
1. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent!
2. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurance of Greece unresolved issues?
3. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
4. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
2. Middle East and OIL:
1. Oil is still high and is becoming a real problem in the emerging markets. 
2. Middle East - Syria, Bahrain, Libya will raise oil prices on fear alone.    The larger issue is what next!   Iran - Syria - Lebanon - Shia Vs. Sunni 
3. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
3. WIKILEAKS
4. The end of QEII coming in June.
5. Market has had a run:
1. Market is high and there is a long way down in investors minds.
2. Market is at a 12 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.    There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
6. Interest Rate Hikes:
1. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
7. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:
1. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR?
8. State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
9. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
10. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
11. Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while.

The Bull Team:

1. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!
2. Real Estate - Still dropping and never a really liquid asset.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.
2. Unemployment is below 9% for first time in years.    Economic Activity is starting to happen and soon it will not require government or FED to be involved. 
3. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?   Need more detail of how much though.
4. QEII - Stimulative Spending II is a go.   The economy seems to be moving and this bill will likely put us over on stimulus.
5. Earnings continue to get better
6. EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
7. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
8. Bernanke is creating calm in the markets from his WISDOM.
9. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
10. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
11. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
12. Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise after Irelands latest downgrade.