Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Earnings Season Whiplash on the DOW, S&P, and Especially Nasdaq

I think it is wise to let things just play out and buy or sell in this period with limit orders.    After earnings season macro issues will be focused on again.  I have been buying more Call Option because I have GREED for increased upside but want to limit my FEAR of the downside.   Until earnings season finishes there will be constant MICRO noise that will continue to pull and push the market.  

The Bears Team:
  1. WIKILEAKS Terrorism will likely continue and Internet mischief with Mastercard.   PS - Personally I am not necessarily against these exposures of the upperclass issues.
  2. Market is high and there is a long way down in investors minds.
  3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a reoccurance of Greece unresolved issues?   Or just any news from the ratings agencies.
  4. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
  5. Political Risk - German public is like 90% against further bailout of the siesta economies.
  6. Political Risk - Tea Party could break up the bull dance if they get too much power in congress.
  7. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
  8. General bond market collapse is expected as bonds cant go much lower.
  9. Australia Floods push up raw material costs
  10. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
  11. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
  12. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted and create an accidental WAR?
  13. Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
  14. Market is at a 12 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.    There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
  15. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher.  Growth will need to be embraced to grow profits shorly.
  16. Investors remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while. 
  17. What happened to the Bird Flu? 
  18. Middle East - Lebanon, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan......    No geopolitical issues.    No crazy Iranian comments about the Holocaust being false?

The Bull Team:
  1. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?
  2. Need more detail of how much though.
  3. QEII - Stimulative Spending II is a go.   The economy seems to be moving and this bill will likely put us over on stimulus.
  4. Earnings are getting better
  5. Unemployment is starting to firm.
  6. GE earnings call. 
  7. EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
  8. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
  9. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
  10. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
  11. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
  12. Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise after Irelands latest downgrade.   

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