Greed, needs to help this market out. Otherwise we will be waiting for:
Chinese Government who is notoriously difficult to believe.
Oil Market Rising
Paux Euro Banking Crisis of 2016 to start...
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Thursday, February 4, 2016
BOGO Sale Gone Crazy on Wall Street
Fed - In FED Bizarro world, bad news is good news for the economy. I think there are very few people still buying into the concept that there will be 4 rate hikes in 2016. Signs of layoffs exist in for US Exporters and Oil Industry.
China - Still headed down but not down to 0. Just correcting for Chinese Govt Interference last year and some. FXI should be just about done I would think?
Oil - Not looking bullish, but not going to 0 either. The likely near term range could be 24-46ish. I plan to start dumping WLL when we get to 46ish.
Dollar - Super freakin dollar acceleration has stopped and the EURO is starting to climb. When the dollar slides the added benefit seems to be the climbing WTI. A potential 2fer.
What can go right.....
China - Still headed down but not down to 0. Just correcting for Chinese Govt Interference last year and some. FXI should be just about done I would think?
Oil - Not looking bullish, but not going to 0 either. The likely near term range could be 24-46ish. I plan to start dumping WLL when we get to 46ish.
Dollar - Super freakin dollar acceleration has stopped and the EURO is starting to climb. When the dollar slides the added benefit seems to be the climbing WTI. A potential 2fer.
What can go right.....
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
Bought 100 shares of LEN
Though this stock has risk with interest rate hikes, I think there is also healthy demand for housing in this country and the PE ratio is definitely compelling.
Thursday, January 28, 2016
How Low Can We Go!
I wish I had more money to through at the market today. I did buy 50 of AAPL however.
How does decelerating China, increasing dollar, dropping oil, and Fed Rate Hikes have to do with earnings? If you can answer that to each of your stocks you can see where the next 3 months may go.
How does decelerating China, increasing dollar, dropping oil, and Fed Rate Hikes have to do with earnings? If you can answer that to each of your stocks you can see where the next 3 months may go.
Friday, January 15, 2016
What Makes this Bear Market Systematic?
Oil:
Oil typically pumps stocks up as does a tax rate decrease. In today's market however this does not seem the case. Saudi continued dumping and producers slower than slow drop in production have created a downward pressure that shows no signs of relief except for maybe small market bounces here and there. This could get really concerning if the Saudi plan works and 1/3 of US producers go under in the next year or so. Banks do hold a lot of the bad debt coming from these bankruptcies.
FED Rate Hikes:
Suggested that there would be another 4 hikes this year. FAT CHANCE given the current market. So one should probably expect no rate hike in the next 6 months. This will not like get systemic, but will lower P/E ratios over time on rate hike at a time.
China:
Any good news from China will be great! We cant have any more ghost city being built any more however. Also, given their market has been artificially pumped up for over a year and at the same time GDP has been cut drastically there seems to be plenty of downside available.
Oil typically pumps stocks up as does a tax rate decrease. In today's market however this does not seem the case. Saudi continued dumping and producers slower than slow drop in production have created a downward pressure that shows no signs of relief except for maybe small market bounces here and there. This could get really concerning if the Saudi plan works and 1/3 of US producers go under in the next year or so. Banks do hold a lot of the bad debt coming from these bankruptcies.
FED Rate Hikes:
Suggested that there would be another 4 hikes this year. FAT CHANCE given the current market. So one should probably expect no rate hike in the next 6 months. This will not like get systemic, but will lower P/E ratios over time on rate hike at a time.
China:
Any good news from China will be great! We cant have any more ghost city being built any more however. Also, given their market has been artificially pumped up for over a year and at the same time GDP has been cut drastically there seems to be plenty of downside available.
Monday, January 4, 2016
What Are My Potential Buys and Sells
Buys:
BA
BAC
WMT
RSG
EEM
IBB
AMGN
CELG
FDX
BFA
EFA
EURO/USD
SPY
Sells:
NAT
CAT
BA
BAC
WMT
RSG
EEM
IBB
AMGN
CELG
FDX
BFA
EFA
EURO/USD
SPY
Sells:
NAT
CAT
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Assuming A Rate Hike in December - Portfolio Adjustments Will Be Needed
I dumped GM today assuming slower domestic demand and higher dollar exchange rates.
Buys
Banks - Spreads or margins at banks will just expand.
Tech - Season move with positive xmas season.
Sells
International Stocks, Large Caps, Large Industrials - Dollar will rise in relation to other stocks.
Dividend Stocks - If interest rates increase.
Homebuilders? - Rate rise makes their homes more expensive immediately. However maybe there will be a buying binge to lock in interest rates before they rise?
Buys
Banks - Spreads or margins at banks will just expand.
Tech - Season move with positive xmas season.
Sells
International Stocks, Large Caps, Large Industrials - Dollar will rise in relation to other stocks.
Dividend Stocks - If interest rates increase.
Homebuilders? - Rate rise makes their homes more expensive immediately. However maybe there will be a buying binge to lock in interest rates before they rise?
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