25% Cash and Expecting More EU Gibberish

Dow which way to go? Up Steadily or Down Hard

This is the EU bailout repeat.    Still have to watch out for the bottom if EU politicians can not corral their troops and the Shorts win.

Sold 200 shares of BA today

Continuing to enlarge my cash position and wait for lower prices.  

From Summer Duldrums to EURO Greece Default - How to Make or Conserve $$$

The threat of EURO Greek default suggests a worst case scenario in the future similar to the LEHMAN Blowout.    That could bring the DOW down to about 6500 in an replica of 2009s Bank Defaults.    I think the possibility of Greece being kicked out of the EU or further bond write downs could be around 5-30% in the next 3 months.

Greek gets kicked out of the EU scenario - Banks and investors holding Greek Debt likely get shafted.    Bankers stop giving IOUs to eachother as they do not know who is holding the Toxic Greek Bonds (IOUs).    British, German, and French Banks catch a cold from the PIIGS.    The PIIGS banks on the Mediteranean get a solid hammering and possibly a few go out of business.   

Where does all the $$ come from to prevent Greek Default come from?   Do the printing presses just keep running up inflation.    Does Germany and France just get pay up?    Is there more papering over the problem?     Can the problem be solved after a good papering over?   Does the problem ever get solved?

What is the risk of the above scenario worth to equity investors?  

Sorry I barely know what the right questions are.    Let me know your thoughts on what the downsizing will play out as?

Bought 100 shares KFN and 50 shares NBR

Sold 200 shares of TRN on Tuesday

Just trying to get a larger position of cash ready for the EU banking to become a bigger problem.     Given the lack of political and financial EU organization there is definitely the opportunity to miss something in the next 3 months.

Macro Market - Time to Buy or Sell - Macro Issues Seem to Be Settling

September is the time to buy Tech.    I am looking at ADSK call options and GOOG call options and AAPL.   NFLX and CRM are looking good as well.    This all assumes the EU version of Financial Contagion does not happen and the papering over will hold for another 3 months.   I am exiting financials (banks).   Should I be selling high valued Safety Stocks KO, PEP, ED, ABT, BDX and the like?.    They seem to be high valued right now....   

The Bears Team:

1. Emerging Market Interest Rates Keep Marching upwards.    The inflation seems to be slowing.
1. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
2. De-leveraging 
1. EU Issues:
1. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent!  Will EU and IMF kick the can down the street again or kick Greece out of the EU and devalue ate the Drachma.
2. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurrance of Greece unresolved issues?
3. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
4. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
5. Earnings are starting to slow. 
6. EU continues to just spend its way out of Banking issues.   The shell game will have to get resolved soon.   Every 3 month we start with problems in Greece then Italy then Portugal then Ireland and finally Spain. 
2. US State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
3. China Real Estate Bubble starting to top.    Will this migrate to banks anytime soon.
3. Middle East and OIL:
1. Oil is on the low end of the $80 -$100 dollar range.   
2. Middle East - Arab Spring is settling in.    Syria is the last festering overthrow to move forward.   The larger issue is what next!   Iran - Syria - Lebanon - Shia Vs. Sunni 
3. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
4. WIKILEAKS seems to be quite.
5. QEII ended - Now what?
6. Where are the Rogue States:
1. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR? 
2. Iran
3. Venezuela
4. Russia
7. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
2. How will the US continue to lower its currency in the face of downward competition on developed currencies.
8. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
9. Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while. 
10. Market has had a run since the March 2009 lows.
1.  There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
11. Money flows are coming out of stock and going into Mattresses?

The Bull Team:

1. Stocks are on sale again.    
2. EU have fixed the PIIGS cash leak temporily.
3. US budget is over and we are moving on. 
4. Stocks have dropped from DOW 12,928.50 to todays level.    Stocks are more valuable when their price gets cut.   Simple concept, but not sure if this is apparent in the market yet. 
5. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!   Just because yield keep dropping does not mean they will.   Besides how low can they go.
2. Real Estate - Starting to level off, but never a really liquid asset.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.   Levels do seem speculatively high at the current time.
6. Unemployment is near 9% for first time in years, yet there is constant floundering on the numbers.   
7. Economic Activity is starting to happen but at like 1-2% which is historically slow.
8. Bernanke has great wisdom about depressions.
9. Bernanke is creating calm in the markets from his WISDOM.
10. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
11. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
12. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budget.  
13. Corporate Earnings still good in the US.