Sold 200 shares of TRN on Tuesday

Just trying to get a larger position of cash ready for the EU banking to become a bigger problem.     Given the lack of political and financial EU organization there is definitely the opportunity to miss something in the next 3 months.

Macro Market - Time to Buy or Sell - Macro Issues Seem to Be Settling

September is the time to buy Tech.    I am looking at ADSK call options and GOOG call options and AAPL.   NFLX and CRM are looking good as well.    This all assumes the EU version of Financial Contagion does not happen and the papering over will hold for another 3 months.   I am exiting financials (banks).   Should I be selling high valued Safety Stocks KO, PEP, ED, ABT, BDX and the like?.    They seem to be high valued right now....   

The Bears Team:

1. Emerging Market Interest Rates Keep Marching upwards.    The inflation seems to be slowing.
1. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
2. De-leveraging 
1. EU Issues:
1. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent!  Will EU and IMF kick the can down the street again or kick Greece out of the EU and devalue ate the Drachma.
2. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurrance of Greece unresolved issues?
3. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
4. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
5. Earnings are starting to slow. 
6. EU continues to just spend its way out of Banking issues.   The shell game will have to get resolved soon.   Every 3 month we start with problems in Greece then Italy then Portugal then Ireland and finally Spain. 
2. US State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
3. China Real Estate Bubble starting to top.    Will this migrate to banks anytime soon.
3. Middle East and OIL:
1. Oil is on the low end of the $80 -$100 dollar range.   
2. Middle East - Arab Spring is settling in.    Syria is the last festering overthrow to move forward.   The larger issue is what next!   Iran - Syria - Lebanon - Shia Vs. Sunni 
3. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
4. WIKILEAKS seems to be quite.
5. QEII ended - Now what?
6. Where are the Rogue States:
1. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR? 
2. Iran
3. Venezuela
4. Russia
7. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
2. How will the US continue to lower its currency in the face of downward competition on developed currencies.
8. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
9. Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while. 
10. Market has had a run since the March 2009 lows.
1.  There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
11. Money flows are coming out of stock and going into Mattresses?

The Bull Team:

1. Stocks are on sale again.    
2. EU have fixed the PIIGS cash leak temporily.
3. US budget is over and we are moving on. 
4. Stocks have dropped from DOW 12,928.50 to todays level.    Stocks are more valuable when their price gets cut.   Simple concept, but not sure if this is apparent in the market yet. 
5. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!   Just because yield keep dropping does not mean they will.   Besides how low can they go.
2. Real Estate - Starting to level off, but never a really liquid asset.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.   Levels do seem speculatively high at the current time.
6. Unemployment is near 9% for first time in years, yet there is constant floundering on the numbers.   
7. Economic Activity is starting to happen but at like 1-2% which is historically slow.
8. Bernanke has great wisdom about depressions.
9. Bernanke is creating calm in the markets from his WISDOM.
10. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
11. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
12. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budget.  
13. Corporate Earnings still good in the US.

Sell or Buy Before Fed Meeting on Friday?

That is the question.     After that time if there is not a better EU Debt outlook or a better US economic forcast then all I can see is more down till the fear enters the market.    What options are left for Ben.    QE3 seems like a lame concept given interest rates are already low.    Interest rates for 2 years was definitely a good surprise.    Does been have another surprise available?

Bought a GOOG March 2012 Call for 57.8

Macro EURO issues are worse and getting worse.     Expect Financial to Crater as contagion risk increases from Hedge Fund Short Selling Press Pressure.    However, US stock have a large cash hord and I do not expect this correction to be a long one.     How about you?

Now What? Not Govt Funded and Not EU Contagion Related SOOO!

That leaves KO, PEP, PM, DIS, BP, COP, CAT DD, CHK, and ED.    All have dividend protection and most are recession resistant (not recession proof).   However these stocks do not seem like bargains at this price.  Any ideas?

The Market is Oversold, But I Expect It To Continue Down

So the macro risk premium just when up on all stocks.    Especially hard hit will be financials and government budget related budget cut items like: Defense and Healthcare.   

Given the macro market selloffs  where all stocks drop expect significant opportunity to buy "Good" stocks with real earnings.    Additionally, I would estimate there will lower lows for stocks with significant dividend protection.  

Below is how I rank my equity holdings.   I also realize I need to do less diversification and more focus as well.    This is still pretty rough however, but necessary for my sanity as this high risk week starts.   

1	ACCUMULATE
2	BUY ON PULBACKS
3	HOLD
4	SELL ON PULLBACKS
5	SELL
	RANKING	DIVIDEND EST.	COMMENTS
FTEXX	1	CASH	CASH IS KING
FDRXX	1	CASH	CASH IS KING
HRVIX	4	MED CAP	DROPS WITH ENTIRE MARKET
HIINX	3	INTERNATIONAL	DROP EXPECTED BUT BETTER OVERALL
FCNTX	2	CONTRA	PROBABLY GOOD
FDIVX	2	DIV STOCKS	LARGE DIV STOCKS PROBABLY GOOD.
FFKEX	3	2030	AMBIVALENT
JMCVX	4	MIDCAP	DOWN WITH REST OF MARKET
OAKBX	3	BOND + INCOME	LESS VOLITITLITY
SPHIX	4	CORP DEBT	CORPORATIONS BETTER THEN ALL
ABT	2	5.00%	DIVIDEND PROTECTED, HEALTH CARE CUT HIT
BDX	2	2.00%	SLIGHT DIVIDEND PROTECTED, MED COMMODITY
AA	4	1.20%	COMMODITIES DROPPING
NUE	3	5.00%	DIVIDEND IS COMPELLING.    INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH?
BA	3	2.00%	DEFENSE CUTS EMINENT, AIRPLANES UP.
GE	3	3.00%	LARGE DEBT STILL
DD	3	3.00%	AGRICULTURE AND CHEMICAL LINKED
GM	4	0.00%	NO DIVIDEND SO MOVING LOWER.
NBR	3	1.00%	WHY DOES THIS GAS STOCK SUCK
BP	3	4.00%	GOOD DIVIDEND
CHK120111C35	3	0.00%	NEW FINDS IN UTICA SHALE
ADES	1	0.00%	MEETS LIBERAL AGENDAS AND REGULATIONS
GSFVF	3	0.00%	ENVIRONMENT ISSUES ARE A PRIORITY AFTER YOU HAVE A STEADY ECONOMY
NAT	3	6.60%	TOO LOW TO SELL.   STILL A GOOD DIV.  IS DIV SAFE?
ESLR	5	0.00%	THIS STOCK JUST SUCKS.    WHEN WILL IT DISAPPEAR
KFN	2	8.20%	MAKES MONEY UP OR DOWN AND HAS GOOD DIVIDEND
TBTC36120121	4	0.00%	SHORT TERM LOWER MEDIUM TERM FLAT LONG TERM SHARPLY HIGHER
BAC	5	1.00%	MACRO AND MICRO MISMANAGEMENT A NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT 4 MONTH/LOW PRICE
AXP	3.5	1.50%	GREAT FRANCHISE BUT DIVIDEND AND FINANCIAL ASSOCIATIONS MIGHT BUSH LOWER
ADSK111022	4	0.00%	OPTION IS WORTHLESS RIGHT NOW SO WHY SELL?
UPS	2	3.00%	GOING LOWER SLIGHTLY
CSX	2	2.00%	GOING LOWER SLIGHTLY
DIS	3	1.10%	GREAT FRANCHISE BUT EXPECT LOWER TO GO.
LOW	1	1.00%	LOWER DIVIDEND, BUT 2012 CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SHOULD BE STABILIZING
PEP	1	3.00%	STEADY SECULAR GROWTH EXPECTED
KO	1	3.00%	STEADY SECULAR GROWTH EXPECTED
ED	1	4.00%	GREAT DIVIDEND AND NON CORRELATED COMPANY
VZ	2	5.60%	GREAT DIVIDEND AND SHOULD BE A SLOWER THAN NORMAL DROP

Starting to Enter the Market Again - Bought Jan Calls for CHK and TBT

Additionally, I bought some BDX at 85 and 81 on long term limit orders.     We will see what happens.    That seems like enough buying for today.    Cash level are currently at like 22%