Assuming A Rate Hike in December - Portfolio Adjustments Will Be Needed

I dumped GM today assuming slower domestic demand and higher dollar exchange rates.

Buys
Banks - Spreads or margins at banks will just expand.
Tech - Season move with positive xmas season.

Sells
International Stocks, Large Caps, Large Industrials - Dollar will rise in relation to other stocks.
Dividend Stocks - If interest rates increase.
Homebuilders? - Rate rise makes their homes more expensive immediately.   However maybe there will be a buying binge to lock in interest rates before they rise?

October 12th - What to Buy and Sell?

Hard to say given there is still the budget fight in Washington coming into the spot light in a couple weeks.   

Typical Periodic Rotation in October is from Value to Growth Stocks.     Given that I think the below seem like some stocks worth looking into:
IBB - Biotech has dropped sharply after Hillary's comments
BABA - Consumerism in China is likely to be a reality soon.
ADSK - Construction in the US is tightening.    Why would A/E firms not want more automation?
TWTR - Hammered for so long.    Somebody must be able to figure out how to monetize this stock?

Given that interest rates might start their rise I would favor these stocks:
BK - Regional/Nation Bank
USB - Regional/National Bank
BAC

The oil stock still seem problematic.    There has been some drops in production, but there is a call option on the entire group given production could be increased so quickly especially from local american operators.     

10 Most Bearish Days of the Year

10/22 - 0.36%
9/27  -   0.27%
3/30 -   0.26%
10/25 - 0.25%

See the original article online.....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sept-30-is-historically-the-worst-day-of-the-year-for-stock-market-investors-2015-09-29?siteid=YAHOOB

If Money is Not Going to US Stocks Then Where Is Cash Being INVESTED?

What Will Kill This Bear?

Higher Oil Prices - Saudi Arabia slows pumping
Some Tangible Good News from China - PRC must build some confidence with their direction.
Dollar Declines Against Euro Etc. Currencies - Super freaking dollar needs to stop.
Lower Interest Rates - Clarity from the FED

Buying Opportunity - Saudi - Persian and Fracker Haters Coupled with Market Misinformation from the PRC

Running out of cash to buy stocks slowly......

The real question is how much downside and how long.....      Same old questions from the great recession when I think of it.   

Headwinds

Right now there seems to be just a few headwinds for the US market:

1. High Dollar is currently effecting US exporters adversely and there does not seem to be any reason to expect the EURO or Chinese Currency to strengthen any time soon.   I think we are approaching stabilization soon however. 
2. Dropping Oil is great for the consumer world wide but has issues on a large component of the market Oil and Gas Stocks.   Especially since OPEC continues to increase production to keep oil low.  If Iran sanctions drop as predicted watch out below even more.  
3. Middle East - ISIS, Iran, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Shia Islam vs. Sunni Islam, Free State of Kurdistan, Etc.     Revolution and civil unrest remain and are intensifying.  
4. Interest Rate Hikes - Janet Yellen will raise rates at least some this year.  

Summer Duldrums - More Like Summer Spass Out Market

I wonder if the Market is a bit too optimistic given the possible parade of horrible s available:  

1. Greece VS. EURO
2. EUROBonds - Mediteranean borrowing nations bond issues
3.  Dropping Oil
4. Puerto Rico
5. Chinese Nationalism - Island Imperialism - China's Island to nowhere empire growth at the expense of Japan, Vietnam, Phillipines, and Taiwan
6. Russian Lebensland - Russian expansions and destabilization of bordering states.
1. Ukrainian War - Russian Summer offensive.
7. ISIS - Middle East Corruptions and blowbacks
8. Yemen - More middle east ISIS corruptions
9. Fluctuations in Dollar become extreme.
10. Imports wiping out the US domestic export manufacturers
11. Slow growth
12. North Korea

Possible Parade of Horribles which Could Bear Down on the Market......

1. Greece vs. EURO
2. Russian Lebensland - Russian expansions and destabilization of bordering states.
3. Ukrainian War - Russian Summer offensive.
4. ISIS - Middle East Corruptions and blowbacks
5. Yemen - More middle east ISIS corruptions
6. EURO Mediteranean borrowing nations bond issues
7. Oil Price rising too fast. 
8. Dollar dropping too fast
9. Imports wiping out the US domestic export manufacturers
10. Slow growth
11. North Korea
12. China's Island to nowhere empire growth at the expense of Japan, Vietnam, Phillipines, and Taiwan

Some Good Stocks for Individual Sections......

1. Aerospace: Boeing (BA), Honeywell (HON), and Precision Cast Parts (PCP).
2. Oil and Gas: Baker Hughes (BHI), Schlumberger (SLB), Weatherford International (WFT), and Halliburton (HAL).
3. Trucks: Cummins (CMI).
4. Plastics: Dow Chemical (DOW) and Airgas (ARG).
5. High-end Retail: Tiffany (TIF), Coach (COH), Nordstrom (JWN), VF Corp. (VFC), and Phillips Van Heusen (PVH).
6. Agriculture: Potash (POT), DuPont (DD).
7. Technology: Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Google (GOOG).

My Buy and Sell List Over Summer

The tide for international stocks should be getting positive as the dollar strengthens.    Additionally, as oil strengthens the energy patch should be getting better as well.    Stick with high quality oil stocks as the oversupply is still very much intact.   

Already sold out of DAL,

To Sell: PHM GM AAPL DIS DD CSX NAT USB BNY GE GM NAT PM

Increase Positions: WLL BP AA ETP KSU NUE HIINX

Start a Position:  COP

Sold 400 of PHM Monday and 100 of DAL Today

Taking profits before possible summer sell-off.     Time will tell?

Portfolio Change In Directions - Banks, Emerging Markets, and Oil

I think Banks, Emerging Markets, and Oil are about to breakout of their doldrums and in oils case a bear market.    Let me know your thoughts?

Sell in May and Walk Away Year?

The question has to be asked given the market is already jittery from: Low Oil, High Dollar, Greece, Ukraine, Russia, Syria, ISIS, Iraq, and North Korea?   So I think I am planning on selling some 5 month call options on stock favorites and selling some less than favorites.   The details of which will take some serious thought.  

Sold NAT - Right or Wrong Move?

I sold 250 shares of NAT.     Now I find out the Herby and his son purchased 50k shares between 10-11.    Will rates remain at the 35k per day rate or are they going lower after gasoline prices start to rise?    Also, given I assume this will be a U type recovery in Gasoline prices one would assume at least a slow disipation of tankers for storage.     So slightly bullish on the Short and Middle Terem

Long Term North America is becoming more and more independent and therefore fewer long term trips to North America from the Middle east or Mediterranean.    So slightly bearish on the long term.

On hold till April

Approximately this market feels like a sell in May and walk away market.   There is plenty of drama available:

Isis

North Korea 

Ukraine 

China deceleration and corruption

Unknown unknowns sell ades

ADES accounting and financial meltdown equals a sell.   How are you supposed to value a company which has a newly hired cfo etc and who kpmg will no longer work with?