Macro Market Update - Third Quarter Closing

Stocks just seem expensive with the DOW at short and medium term highs.    Strange but this story is much the same as in April of this year.    The notable addition seem the US Fiscal Cliff.

The Bears Team:

1. US Fiscal Cliff
1. Automatic Cuts to the budget
1. Defense
2. Social Programs
2. If congress screws this up and the Keynesian spending is pulled look for another hit and decelleration of GDP.   Hayekian cuts will start.    
1. Likely outcome will be for new congress to kick the can again.
2. Middle East and OIL:
1. Limited War with Iran over Sanctions
1. We sanctioned Japan before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor so we should not be surprised if another war in on the horizon with Iran
2. Israel is waiting for the opportunity to scuttle Iran Nukes.
3. United States still assumes role as world policeman.    After Arab Spring there is probably more government risk in Iran to remain at peace. 
4. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again. 
2. Oil is in the middle of its latest range $80 -$100 dollar range.   
3. Middle East - Arab Spring is settling in.    
1. Syria is the last festering overthrow to move forward.   
2. Iran and Arab Peninsula have still been untouched - Jordan, Bahrain, Iran.....
3. No actual negatives besides the Libyian Consolate Attack.
3. De-leveraging 
1. EU Issues:
1. Hungary on the verge of bail out.
2. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent given their lack of credibility!  Will EU and IMF kick the can down the street again or kick Greece out of the EU and devalue ate the Drachma.
3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurrance of Greece unresolved issues? 
4. Spain is immenent to ask for another bailout.
5. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
6. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
7. Earnings are starting to slow. 
8. EU continues to just spend its way out of Banking issues.   The shell game will have to get resolved soon.   Every 3 month we start with problems in Greece then Italy then Portugal then Ireland and finally Spain. 
9. Leveraged buybacks of bonds which are internally purchased are just kicking the can down the road.  
10. Who's currency is going to drop the fastest and enjoy the export boom.    All first world econonies are trying this move.
2. US State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
3. China Real Estate Bubble starting to top.    Will this migrate to banks anytime soon.
1. Communists are managing this pretty well, but how long can you hide these issues. 
2. Decelleration of the economy really starting to set in.
4. QEIII starting with more of the QEII stuff to continue into 2015.
1. Operation Twist will likely continue with interest rates near all time lows..
5. Emerging Market Interest Rates are Up but in a flattening or downward trajectory
6. Where are the Rogue States:
1. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR? 
2. Iran - Israel strikes eminent?
3. Venezuela
4. Russia
7. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
2. How will the US continue to lower its currency in the face of downward competition on developed currencies.
8. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
9. Market Volatility From Past Bubbles..   Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while. 
10. Market has had a run since the March 2009 lows.
1.  There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
2. Since October 2011 we are up huge.   
3. A downturn is expected.
11. US political risk should be getting larger as we move into 2nd half of 2012.
12. Recession in Europe is starting to take hold without EU Stimuli.

The Bull Team:

1. Money flows are back to stocks as the bond market looks like it will be dying for years to come.    Lower rates are not very feasible at these historically low rates.
2. US Stocks are having some momentum and money around the world is moving into US Equities.   
3. EU keeps handling the situation even if at the last minute - Anxiety over a year can not remain heightened.
4. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!   Just because yield keep dropping does not mean they will.   Besides how low can they go.
2. Real Estate - Starting to move up.
1. Home builders and infrasture stocks starting noticable upward trajectory.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.   Levels do seem speculatively high at the current time.
5. Unemployment is near 8.2% for first time in years and there continues to be increase employment numbers repeatedly.    Numbers are still rising at a slow rate. 
6. Economic Activity is starting to happen but at like 2-3% increased level expectations now from 1% 6 months ago.
7. Bernanke has great wisdom about depressions and has a calming effect on the market.
1. rates low for an extended time period is predictable and great for business makers.
8. Political Democrat vs. Republican - gridlock means no new regulations or business environment changes.
1. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
9. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budget.  
10. Corporate Earnings still good in the US. 
11. WIKILEAKS seems to be quite and soon to be erased by legal means of the EU and US.