Who is going to PUSH Lowes Higher?

After such a run, I wonder how much further it can go?  Even though I have about 35% in cash right now I am seriously wondering if this is just too good to believe.    No decision yet.   Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

PE = 19 which has expections of growth   PEG = 1.27  Starting to get rich   Dividend = 2.1%

Valuation Measures   Market Cap (intraday)5: 33.71B Enterprise Value (Jan 28, 2012)3: 39.35B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 19.70 Forward P/E (fye Jan 28, 2013)1: 15.12 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.27 Price/Sales (ttm): 0.69 Price/Book (mrq): 2.02 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.80 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 7.46 Financial Highlights   Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Ends: Jan 28 Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Oct 28, 2011 Profitability Profit Margin (ttm): 3.67% Operating Margin (ttm): 7.52% Management Effectiveness Return on Assets (ttm): 6.76% Return on Equity (ttm): 10.10% Income Statement Revenue (ttm): 49.06B Revenue Per Share (ttm): 37.68 Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 2.30% Gross Profit (ttm): 17.15B EBITDA (ttm)6: 5.27B Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 1.79B Diluted EPS (ttm): 1.37 Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -44.30% Balance Sheet Total Cash (mrq): 969.00M Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.77 Total Debt (mrq): 6.62B Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 39.35 Current Ratio (mrq): 1.14 Book Value Per Share (mrq): 13.34 Cash Flow Statement Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 3.91B Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 2.29B View Financials Income Statement - Balance Sheet - Cash Flow

AdChoices Trading Information   Stock Price History Beta: 1.21 52-Week Change3: 8.51% S&P500 52-Week Change3: 2.35% 52-Week High (Jan 18, 2012)3: 27.57 52-Week Low (Aug 10, 2011)3: 18.07 50-Day Moving Average3: 25.92 200-Day Moving Average3: 22.33 Share Statistics Avg Vol (3 month)3: 16,388,200 Avg Vol (10 day)3: 15,582,200 Shares Outstanding5: 1.25B Float: 1.25B % Held by Insiders1: 0.24% % Held by Institutions1: 75.10% Shares Short (as of Jan 13, 2012)3: 22.57M Short Ratio (as of Jan 13, 2012)3: 1.50 Short % of Float (as of Jan 13, 2012)3: 1.70% Shares Short (prior month)3: 23.08M Dividends & Splits Forward Annual Dividend Rate4: 0.56 Forward Annual Dividend Yield4: 2.10% Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: 0.53 Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: 1.10% 5 Year Average Dividend Yield4: 1.40% Payout Ratio4: 43.00% Dividend Date3: Feb 7, 2012 Ex-Dividend Date4: Jan 23, 2012 Last Split Factor (new per old)2: 2:1 Last Split Date3: Jul 3, 2006

Is there finally some market weakness?

Looking to buy some aapl ba nue or possibly banks.

Wait till May to Walk Away? Or?

Not sure how much longer this bull will continue.   Though Europe has been discounted largely because of temporary funding, when will this problem unwind again.   Will EU continue to be able to manage things at the last minute as usual.  Currently things feel somewhat fairly priced when considering the potential risks available.   So, I will continue watching the market and waiting for a buying opportunity.    AAPL COP HOT etc. are definitely at the top of the list.

I Need to Get Rid of NBR.

This stock has no Mojo.    Management and execution seem to be lacking.    It has lagged the broader oil market for years.    Will someone buy this company and put me out of my misery?

Waiting for a suiter?

Bought 100 Shares of PM as Long Term Trade at 74.5 Today

Could be some short term downside however.    Longer term I believe this stock has growth and is somewhat recession proof.

Macro Market - How High Can We Go?

I believe we are in the waiting mode to have a least a small 5% pull back.    Stocks just seem expensive with the DOW at 5 month highs. 


The Bears Team:

1. Middle East and OIL:
1. Limited War with Iran over Sanctions
1. We sanctioned Japan before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor so we should not be surprised if another war in on the horizon with Iran
2. Israel is waiting for the opportunity to scuttle Iran Nukes.
3. United States still assumes role as world policeman.    After Arab Spring there is probably more government risk in Iran to remain at peace.  
2. Oil is on the high end of the $80 -$100 dollar range.   
3. Middle East - Arab Spring is settling in.    Syria is the last festering overthrow to move forward.   
1. Iran and Arab Peninsula have still been untouched - Jordan, Bahrain, Iran.....
4. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
2. De-leveraging 
1. EU Issues:
1. Hungary on the verge of bail out.
2. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent!  Will EU and IMF kick the can down the street again or kick Greece out of the EU and devalue ate the Drachma.
3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurrance of Greece unresolved issues?
4. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
5. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
6. Earnings are starting to slow. 
7. EU continues to just spend its way out of Banking issues.   The shell game will have to get resolved soon.   Every 3 month we start with problems in Greece then Italy then Portugal then Ireland and finally Spain. 
8. Leveraged buybacks of bonds which are internally purchased are just kicking the can down the road. 
2. US State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
3. China Real Estate Bubble starting to top.    Will this migrate to banks anytime soon.
3. QEII ended - Now what?
4. Emerging Market Interest Rates are Up.   Will we see some drop in rates soon?.
1. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
5. Where are the Rogue States:
1. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR? 
2. Iran
3. Venezuela
4. Russia
6. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
2. How will the US continue to lower its currency in the face of downward competition on developed currencies.
7. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
8. Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while. 
9. Market has had a run since the March 2009 lows.
1.  There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
10. Money flows are coming out of stock and going into Mattresses?

The Bull Team:

1. US Stocks are having some momentum and money around the world is moving into US Equities.   
2. EU keeps handling the situation even if at the last minute - Anxiety over a year can not remain heightened.
3. US budget is B.S. kibuki theater is long over.  
4. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!   Just because yield keep dropping does not mean they will.   Besides how low can they go.
2. Real Estate - Starting to level off, but neither liquid or an appreciating asset.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.   Levels do seem speculatively high at the current time.
5. Unemployment is near 8.7% for first time in years and there continues to be increase employment numbers repeatedly.    Numbers are still rising at a slow rate. 
6. Emerging Market Interest Rates are Up.   Will we see some drop in rates soon? 
7. Economic Activity is starting to happen but at like 2-3% increased level expectations now from 1% 6 months ago.
8. Bernanke has great wisdom about depressions and has a calming effect on the market.
1. rates low for an extended time period is predictable and great for business makers.
9. Political Democrat vs. Republican gridlock means no new regulations or business environment changes.
1. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
10. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budget.  
11. Corporate Earnings still good in the US. 
12. WIKILEAKS seems to be quite and soon to be erased by legal means of the EU and US.

Take a look at the 5 day charts of PEP, KO, and PM - all down like 2-4% for the week.

What is up with that.    Is this the start of a rotation to cyclical growth companies from secular necessity companies?    There certainly seems to be something here.   

We will see if this holds up next week as the market starts to get spooked by italy and the PIIGS.

Buy or Sell?

Market seems like it keeps on floating higher. Foreign buyers coupled with some relatively good economic and a huge lack of crappy news from Europe continue this floatation, but for how long?

I bought some xlf July puts today. I believe the market is headed down.