What Looks Good as A Sell if Things Get Nutty Out There - ABT, BDX , HRVIX, KO, PEP, CSX

ABT, BDX - has had a good run, but what happens when healthcare becomes a political discussion once again.

HRVIX - the technicals on this mutual fund look toppy still.

BP - Oil not looking good in the near term.  

CSX - Has had a run, but probably has some to go so maybe not a pressing sell.

KO, PEP - If you believe all is clear on Greek Default Pin Action these secular stocks are likely to move down as the market moves towards GREED again.

UPS - Has had a medium run so a possibility if things get scary.  

Are GOOG and AAPL on a BOGO Sale

If there P/Es are about 17 they certainly seem cheap.    My call options on these have dropped in value, and I am thinking of adding more.    How low can these Techs Go.     

When Does DOW Up 1 Down 2 Cycle End......

I am assuming we are close to the end of the Bear.    I think Greek Default, American Deficit, Japanese Tsunami, and Chinese Real Estate Bubble are being baked into the mix slowly.   Hopefully sellers are starting to evaporate and buyer are starting to get interested.   

Bought 510 GOOG Call Option for December on a Long Term Limit Order

I could be a little ahead of myself on this one given tech is really OUT of the wallstreet fashion show right now.    If the market still stinks I will likely sell at a loss in November.    However, the odds of an increase seem more likely therefore the buy.    

Sold 200 CSCO - Just Can't Stand The Pain Any More - I Give Up

I just cant stand by and watch this piece of crap drop anymore.    I think APPL or GOOG are much better positioned to move forward anyways.  

Bought 200 Shares KFN

This stock has had a lot of insider buying lately.    A LOT.    The insider buying coupled with the 6.5% dividend speaks volumes.    I will check out the rest when I get a chance.     

Market Correction, Slow Down, or Double Dip Recession

Well friday was not exactly an awe inspiring buy.    The DOW was down 172 in a solid way.   I am going to be cautiously buying at these lower levels, but there needs to be a catalyst to bet us moving up again like: sustained lower gas prices, DC endorses Natural Gas Market, OPEC increases outputs, ......     Not sure we are going to hear this for a while.    So, I am now in the Market Correction to Slow Down Camp.    So I will be selling and buying with opportunities but not agressively in either direction. 

The Bull Team:

1. Stocks have dropped from DOW 12,928.50 to todays level.
2. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!
2. Real Estate - Still dropping and never a really liquid asset.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.
3. Unemployment is near 9% for first time in years.    
4. Economic Activity is starting to happen and soon it will not require government or FED to be involved. 
5. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?   Need more detail of how much though.
6. QEII - Still around for days longer
7. EU continues to just spend its way out of Banking issues.
8. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
9. Bernanke is creating calm in the markets from his WISDOM.
10. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
11. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
12. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budget. 

The Bears Team:

1. EU Issues:
1. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent!  Will EU and IMF kick the can down the street again or kick Greece out of the EU and devalue ate the Drachma.
2. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurrance of Greece unresolved issues?
3. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
4. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
2. Middle East and OIL:
1. Oil is still high and is becoming a real problem in the emerging markets. 
2. Middle East - Syria, Bahrain, Libya will raise oil prices on fear alone.    The larger issue is what next!   Iran - Syria - Lebanon - Shia Vs. Sunni 
3. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
3. WIKILEAKS
4. The end of QEII coming in June.
5. Market has had a run since the March 2009 lows.
1.  There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
6. Interest Rate Hikes:
1. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
7. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:
1. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR?
8. State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
9. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
10. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
11. Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while.

Bought January Call Option for AAPL and GOOG

Technology stocks should be soft through the summer but how low can they go.    Both of these companies have strong growth, but have price to earnings ratios similar to clorox or general mills.    This situation can not last for ever.....

BULLS VS. BEARS: Time To Start Converting Cash Into Stocks as Greece Goes Belly UP!

The Bull Team:

1. Stocks have dropped from DOW 12,928.50 to todays level.
2. Where else you going to put your money:
1. Bond - Ya Right!
2. Real Estate - Still dropping and never a really liquid asset.
3. Gold - Maybe as that new currency has the least amount of hair.
3. Unemployment is below 9% for first time in years.    
4. Economic Activity is starting to happen and soon it will not require government or FED to be involved. 
5. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?   Need more detail of how much though.
6. QEII - Still around for days longer
7. EU continues to just spend its way out of Banking issues.
8. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
9. Bernanke is creating calm in the markets from his WISDOM.
10. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
11. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
12. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budget. 

The Bears Team:

1. EU Issues:
1. Greece out of the EU?    Issue seems eminent!  Will EU and IMF kick the can down the street again or kick Greece out of the EU and devalue ate the Drachma.
2. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurrance of Greece unresolved issues?
3. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
4. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"
2. Middle East and OIL:
1. Oil is still high and is becoming a real problem in the emerging markets. 
2. Middle East - Syria, Bahrain, Libya will raise oil prices on fear alone.    The larger issue is what next!   Iran - Syria - Lebanon - Shia Vs. Sunni 
3. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
3. WIKILEAKS
4. The end of QEII coming in June.
5. Market has had a run since the March 2009 lows.
1.  There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
6. Interest Rate Hikes:
1. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
7. North Korea is always good for a pop downward:
1. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR?
8. State Bankrupsies: 
1. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
9. Currency Wars to deflate currencies - GOLD
1. .   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
10. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
11. Investors Still Remember the Painful Days of 2001 and 2008.    1998 LTCM 1991 Commercial Banking Crisis and 1987 Crash is probably old by now: 
1. remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while.

Wow What A Time to Buy! As Usual Higher Risks Exist in Times of Lower Stock Prices

Bought some TBT Jan Call Options, some GOOG Jan Call Options, and some International Stocks HIINX.
Sold some defensive Stocks to keep my cash position higher - PEP.