Sold Out of My Last SWKS Position

100 shares today and 200 shares last week at less than todays price.    I am nervous about tablet glut, Japan supply chain issues, and just that I have a 130% gain.   I do not want to be a pig on this stock which I must admit I do not understand as well as Coke or Pepsi.   

End of the Quarter Approaching

Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, and Public Types will be looking to Buy high PE ratio stocks according to Cramer.   I think that there might be an opportunity to sell on Wednesday or Thursday of this week.    I am looking to stop the pain in CSCO and INTC.     So far they have yet to go up.    Just my luck. 

GSFVF - When Will This Become Accepted Practice For Fracing?

I am starting a position with this company.    If environmentalists start cutting back on fracing then this will provide the answer.    New York could be a test case.   Stay tuned for more...

Go ADES GOOOOOO!

Now for the easy hard part - at what price do I sell this item.    24?  36? 

TBT - When Will Interest Rates Rise. Is the Press Too Preoccupied with Lybia, Middle East, and Japan

TBT call options have come down quite a bit in the last little bit.    Almost as low as in December yet we are ticking closer to the Inflation Bomb.    With new catastrophies around the globe to delay the inevitable when will the press focus back on the Market Fundamentals again?  

Is SWKS, CSCO, & INTC at RISK? Are These All In the Sell Block?

What is behind Cramer's Sell of Tech Stocks.     He still likes AAPL and GOOG and Staple Stocks.    So what is wrong with the Tech Stocks?     Cramer thinks the Tech Cycle may be over for now.   I interpret this as coming weekness for SWKS, CSCO, and possibly INTC.     The tablet for the other guys or non AAPL is in a glut or slowdown.    AAPL will ramp up even further if TMobile is taken over.   A plus for AAPL means further pain for tablet competitors.   The negative pin action will hurt tablet competitors further.    TMobiles takeover by ATT will slow down telecom equipment makes as well.     In my case this brings doubt to SWKS, CSCO, & INTC.  

See http://www.cnbc.com/id/42196257?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo   for further info.    Though his insites are still a little crytic given the run SWKS has had there is reason to be concerned and take some profits.    

Next Time There is a Market High I Will Ditch CSCO and INTL

These stocks are zombie growth companies on their way to being value companies.    If nothing changes I will sell these just to get out of them soon.  

Fear Fear Fear - Buy Buy Buy

I bought 100 HD and 100 AXP today.     Put in a limit order for some 100 NBR at 26.10.   

Not sure if there will be additional buying opportunities coming or not.    Will State and Fed Budgets cause Bond Rating drops?    What about Saudi Arabia, Lybia, Yemen, Iran, Oman, and Bahrain?    More Japanese nuclear problems?

As for the stock market any lack of bad news will likely push us into positive territory.  

Game Plan - We Have Entered a Trading Market Again

Stocks that seem to be imunized from Libya and EU banking are PM and PEP.   They are up a little on this Down 1-2% day.   These seem to be safe as long as the Bears do not get pumped up further by State Debts or Further EU Banking Problems.

Higher Beta Stocks I am buying high with Calls or just stares are AXP, ADSK, AA, and AAPL.     AAPL is starting to look good again at 345.     

Too really game this market a trading range is needed.    That will be the next email.    Right now I am think 11500 - 12500 on the DOW, but I know it needs to be tighter.    Not sure what metric to use to define the trading range.    Tune in later.

Bipolar Market - Bears VS Bulls Smackdown

The Bears Team:

1. Oil is rising and inflation is becoming a real problem in the emerging markets. 
2. Libya will raise oil prices on fear alone.    The larger issue is what next.    Then Bahrain will  and Bahrain
3. WIKILEAKS and Internet mischief with Mastercard
4. Market is high and there is a long way down in investors minds.
5. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurance of Greece unresolved issues?   
6. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
7. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"   
8. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
9. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
10. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR?
11. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
12. Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
13. Market is at a 12 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.    There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
14. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
15. Investors remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while.

The Bull Team:

1. Unemployment is below 9% for first time in years.    Economic Activity is starting to happen and soon it will not require government or FED to be involved. 
2. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?
3. Need more detail of how much though.
4. QEII - Stimulative Spending II is a go.   The economy seems to be moving and this bill will likely put us over on stimulus.
5. Earnings are getting better
6. EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
7. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
8. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
9. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
10. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
11. Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise after Irelands latest downgrade. 

Bought October 40 Call ADSK

Just looking for a growth stock that got hit today.   Given this stock does not have a dividend I did not see a reason to purchase the actual stock given the run the market has had lately.    Additionally, this stock is directly linked to the BIM growth that is happening between AutoCads Revit and SAPs ArchiCad.    As incomes start appearing you can expect architects and engineers to continue adoption of 3d cad at a feverish pace.   Federal State and Local Governments are requiring 3d BIM models and on the larger projects it is needed just to do the Energy Modeling (LEED Requirements).

Why is NBR down today 4% or BP down as well? Oil Fears Should Make Oil Stocks Shoot Up?

Higher Oil and Equity Buying

Oil pricing will continue to have a risk factor attached to the price of a barrel of crude for the forseeable future.    Higher oil prices coupled with movements from bonds and foreign market to US Equities.    This will like continue to march up of the DOW however probably more unstable the previous 6 months.

What SAY YOU?