Sold 100 shares of MSFT yesterday - LUCKY!

It is down 1.4 points today.    I just made money on the dividend only for my holdings in MSFT.    This company has become a Zombie Technology firm that just can not seem to get hold of its reins.   Until a turnaround plan is announced I do not think they will get lucky at competing against APPL, GOOG, CRM, and the likes.    They are always late to execute on knock-offs and the only real new innovations are coming from Xbox.    Beyond that they continue to run the risk of cannibalizing their existing market.    This is especially true with Windows 7 vs. the growing market of Cloud Computing.   Bing.....    Cell Phone Operating System...    This stock just lacks upside potential and strong focused management.    Let me know if there are other opinions out there?

Limit Order for AAPL July 2011 315.000 Call SHOULD BE?

Given that its recent PE ratio was 21, this would result in a stock at closer to 376 if fairly valued at current valuations.    I purchased the call for 3.8 and AAPL was trading at about 334 that day so add 42 x 100 to the purchase price of 3800 and you get an expected and approximate sell limit order of around $8000.    I will put in something in the 9000 range as there may be some additional momentum propelling the stock beyond its near term historical PE ratio.    Any thoughts?


On January 1st I bought some:

Bought 1 AAPL Jul 2011 315.000 call

Hopefully this market is just doing a quick correction.   In the short term things look really rosy for stocks. 

Earnings Season Whiplash on the DOW, S&P, and Especially Nasdaq

I think it is wise to let things just play out and buy or sell in this period with limit orders.    After earnings season macro issues will be focused on again.  I have been buying more Call Option because I have GREED for increased upside but want to limit my FEAR of the downside.   Until earnings season finishes there will be constant MICRO noise that will continue to pull and push the market.  

The Bears Team:

1. WIKILEAKS Terrorism will likely continue and Internet mischief with Mastercard.   PS - Personally I am not necessarily against these exposures of the upperclass issues.
2. Market is high and there is a long way down in investors minds.
3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a reoccurance of Greece unresolved issues?   Or just any news from the ratings agencies.
4. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
5. Political Risk - German public is like 90% against further bailout of the siesta economies.
6. Political Risk - Tea Party could break up the bull dance if they get too much power in congress.
7. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
8. General bond market collapse is expected as bonds cant go much lower.
9. Australia Floods push up raw material costs
10. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
11. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
12. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted and create an accidental WAR?
13. Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
14. Market is at a 12 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.    There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
15. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher.  Growth will need to be embraced to grow profits shorly.
16. Investors remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while. 
17. What happened to the Bird Flu? 
18. Middle East - Lebanon, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan......    No geopolitical issues.    No crazy Iranian comments about the Holocaust being false?

The Bull Team:

1. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?
2. Need more detail of how much though.
3. QEII - Stimulative Spending II is a go.   The economy seems to be moving and this bill will likely put us over on stimulus.
4. Earnings are getting better
5. Unemployment is starting to firm.
6. GE earnings call. 
7. EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
8. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
9. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
10. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
11. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
12. Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise after Irelands latest downgrade.   

Sold 2 July 11 BAC Calls

Getting nervous about the recent rally, EURO Bailout Mania Risk, and Countrywide Rabbit Hole. 

Bought 1 AAPL Jul 2011 315.000 call

Hopefully this market is just doing a quick correction.   In the short term things look really rosy for stocks. 

TRN - Thinking About Selling

Wonder if they can continue to feed earnings as they have.    Railroad cars and windmill towers may have had their day.    More research is needed here to make an informed decision.    Let me know your thoughts.

Bought 50 Shares of AXP

I am a long term buy on this quality best of breed company.    I continue to use their credit card first when possible given their rewards are greater the MS or V.   I think this image also telegraphs through their margins as compared with V and MS.    Their earning did suck so could still be some down side to go.  

Time to by some AAPL?

Steve Jobs stepping down.    There should be plenty of products to continue to propell this company further.   The question is what is the buy price.    My old limit order to buy is 290.     I think I will have to go higher....

Time To Start Buying Gold Stocks Again? GLD, AEM, NG, BRK

Gold stocks are one of the few stocks which have taken a pause in the last month.    Everything else seems to be be priced up.    So why buy more gold given it is at an all time high?

1. Gold is the one world currency that has held value since the dawn of time.
2. Chinese and Indians are gold bugs.    Both nations are creating vast currency reserves.   
3. Investment choices in China are politically limited. 
4. With all other nations trying to devalue their currencies that leaves gold staying strong as demand is outpacing production

I like NG and GLD probably best.    I think purchasing a 6 month in the money call may be the best play given gold has had such run already.    Any other thoughts?

I Bought Another 100 AA

Stock went down a little today.    I think it is still good.   

I Bought 100 AA

I think this stock has a possibility of moving:

1. Cramer Recommended as stock of 2012.
2. Autos are starting to use Aluminum Engines with increased regularity.
3. A pin action play on the airplane bull market.
4. A laggard when compared with other natural resources.   
5. Technically this has not run much since the market lows. 

Cautions for AA:

1. Market reversal will likely propell downwards as the short term technicals look a bit rich. 
2. Increased competition?  Not likely.    This is a high barrier to entry business.
3. Flood Market?   Not likely

Is Gold GLD Still Correllated to the DOW? Seems Like There is a Disconnect Happening......

Sold 100 shares of WFT and VZ through Limit Orders

Will ABT or NAT ever have a good day coming.    Their technicals look like a buy.   

Cramer Thinks AA, INTC, and AXP for 2011 Where He Also Expects DOW 13325

I think I will definitely look into buying some AXP.    I think an in the money call makes sense.  

INTC I already own and have suffered from flat growth.

AA just not really sure if this is something worth buying.    However this might be cheaper than buying materials ETFs as they have all had huge moves already.

DOW 13325 seems possible and very conservative.    I do not expect any rate increases and if anything this might be a little low.   I do think that our current bull will need a correction soon. 

Fear VS Greed on the General Markets - DOW, NASDAQ

Feels like we are waiting to break out above or going to have a garden variety pullback.    Under these conditions it might make most sense to buy CALL Options.    You tie up less money and hedge yourself in case there is a large move up. 

The Bears Team:

1. WIKILEAKS and Internet mischief with Mastercard
2. Market is high and there is a long way down in investors minds.
3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurance of Greece unresolved issues?   
4. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
5. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"   
6. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
7. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
8. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR?
9. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
10. Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
11. Market is at a 12 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.    There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
12. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
13. Investors remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while.

The Bull Team:

1. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?
2. Need more detail of how much though.
3. QEII - Stimulative Spending II is a go.   The economy seems to be moving and this bill will likely put us over on stimulus.
4. Earnings are getting better
5. Unemployment is starting to firm.
6. EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
7. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
8. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
9. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
10. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
11. Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise after Irelands latest downgrade.