Thursday, September 30, 2010

When is the next MARKET PULLBACK? 17% Cash Level Now and Waiting

Bought some NUE and considering NAT.   Both remain low in this latest market ascent.    Bank stocks look cheap right now but still have hair related to financial reforms and Euro confusion.  

Hope I will not be waiting for a pullback that will never occur.    When there is a pullback I will be moving to buy calls on high tech items like ADSK, AAPL, GOOG, CRM and the like if there is a large enough downturn.  

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Technology Stocks Seem To Be Starting Their XMAS Ascent!

Is this just another summer rally or are stocks about to start upwards.   AAPL, GOOG, ADSK, all seem to be topping their summer trading range.    The market seems to be breaking out of the summer doldrums and moving more towards real valuations when considering GROWTH.    Dividend stocks have already made the move forward.    Dividend stocks generally have less risk, but with their current valuations that is debatable.   Technology could become to trade with the least risk.     Let me know your thoughts?

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Inflection Point in Summer Doldrums Approaching

I am preparing to start buying on the next weekness in the market.     I think there is plenty of room to run towards previously achieved April Dow Closes.  

What is going to be the case for the Bear Market or short sellers?
  1. European Bank Issues - This will remain a bogus argument without specific details of issues.
  2. Unemployment - There is slight improvement in employment and moving towards the xmas season more hiring should also take place.    Just not that the unemployment seems high is just BOGUS and really should not be able to put additional downward pressure on the market. 
  3. Obama Financial Reform?   Administration has a vested interest in a rising stock market.
  4. Obama Healthcare?   Administration has a vested interest in a rising stock market. 
Let me know what your thoughts are?

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Gut Check of Buys and Sells @ Cash Level 14%

From my list of existing stocks and looking at the one year charts:
Sells:
  1. PM - Low beta stock which has had a great run.   Maybe a time to start taking profits?    Hard to tell and this has a great dividend yield.
  2. DD - Dupont is definitely getting high.    
  3. CAT - Obama stimulus might still input some upside to this heavy construction supplier.
  4. CSX - This Rail stock also gets upward movement with the economy.
  5. PEP - Both high
  6. KO - Pretty high
  7. All of these sell stocks have high dividends and charts show they are relatively high right now so one could take some profits.
Buys:
  1. INTC - Low price if recovery starts to kick in again.   This stock will have to absorb a new acquisition so could be low for a while. 
  2. BAC, WFC - Banks seem crazy low right now.    Obama bank reform is still getting absorbed, so the risk on these stocks seems too large. 
  3. ABT - Drug stocks should start to move again.
  4. BDX - Relatively low price and really is health care reform resistant given it supplies standard health care needs not exotic new drugs.
  5. ABT - Health care seems undervalued relative to the rest of the market.    I would expect some sector rotation to take place short term to move health care stocks further up.
  6. NAT - Oil prices will probably slowly move forward, so not expecting this to move too fast.
  7. INTC - Purchased another company so there could still be some temporary downsides.
  8. All of these buy stocks seem really low right now if we are really in an economic expansion.
Holds:
  1. The rest of my stocks to the right are generally holds.
20100910-Bought some BAC today at 13.59.  

20100910-Sold some CIM at 4.04 as its Ex Dividend Day is fast approaching.    Would like to get back into CIM if there is a good pullback in stocks.

    Wednesday, September 1, 2010

    Dow at 10268 Again - Is this a Buy or Sell

    Seems like there has been a sector rotation into SECULAR stocks like - PM, MO, KO, PEP, GIS and the like.   Is it time to start loading up on something cheap and CYCLICAL like - NUE, NAT, BA and the like.    They certainly are cheap, but the economy will have real problems with thes cyclicals.

    Let me know your thoughts.    I am just frozen about whether to buy or sell.    The market dynamics seem still poised in a trading range.

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