Sold 50 Shares of CAT

I also put a limit order in to buy back the shares at like 89.1.    I like this stock a lot but question its growth being stronger than GOOG or AAPL.    Its PE is in the 30s where AAPL and GOOG are in the mid to low 20s.

Sold 100 shares of GE

I am getting nervous given stock buying has been going on so long.    I see market timing as the primary reason for cautious selling.    Additionally, in GEs case there is a lot of debt which will take a long time to unwind therefore restricting growth in the near future.   

Any thoughts?

Bull Market Enigma - What is a Value Anymore?

BAC
ABT
PEP
CSX

Not sure where to put the cash right now?     What a great problem to have.   Maybe now is the time to buy real estate?

ADES is Kicking ASS!

Probably has about 2 more points to go.    If the interference from lawsuits disappears there are few reasons for downward pressure left.   

Potential Buys - ABT, BRK-B, AAPL AMZN Call Options, NAT

What do most of these stocks have in common.    They are all VALUE stocks.   The market has gone up so much that growth stocks are getting too expensive.   That is why I would suggest AAPL and AMZN Call options as there is limited down sides as well. 


Any better ideas, let me know???

DOW NASDAQ - Bears Vs. Bulls - Will the Financial Press Push Fear or Greed Next.

Feels like we are waiting to break out above or going to have a garden variety pullback.    Under these conditions it might make most sense to buy CALL Options.    You tie up less money and hedge yourself in case there is a large move up. 

The Bears Team:

1. WIKILEAKS and Internet mischief with Mastercard
2. Market is high and there is a long way down in investors minds.
3. IRELAND!   GREECE!   What about Portugal, Spain, and Italy?   What about a recurance of Greece unresolved issues?   
4. European pop-up issues from the banking, lending, or housing issues from the little or big PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
5. Future Headlines? - "EU Division Eminent On Spain (or Italy) Moody's Bond Rating Downgrade!"   
6. China, Australia continue raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
7. Israel and Iran are unusually quite.   When will hatreds in the Middle East ignite again.
8. How much BS can South Korea tolerate from North Korea.   North Korea massing special ops troops on the border.    Will posturing ever be misinterpreted into WAR?
9. CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding!  But someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits.   There is a lot of downside to a credit downgrade of a state and a lot of potential what next questions.     What will be the market ripples on a large state downgrade?
10. Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
11. Market is at a 12 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.    There is a long way down especially in peoples minds.
12. Companies are running out of ways to cut costs.   Given they are not growing what will propel valuations higher. 
13. Investors remain skittish about past Dot Bomb and Financial Busts.   Major downturns have not had enough time to be solidly in the past.   Market memory is still very negative so greed is not likely to take hold for quite a while.

The Bull Team:

1. Money flows are moving out of bonds and into stocks again.  What possible upside is left in the bond market?    QEII will continue to drive people out of bonds.    Individual investors will start to move.   The question is when and how fast?
2. Need more detail of how much though.
3. QEII - Stimulative Spending II is a go.   The economy seems to be moving and this bill will likely put us over on stimulus.
4. Earnings are getting better
5. Unemployment is starting to firm.
6. EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
7. Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has great wisdom about depressions.
8. More elected republicans make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
9. Government gridlock is likely to limit spending programs?    We will see.  
10. Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
11. Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise after Irelands latest downgrade.   

Is ABT and BAC a Value or Just CHEAP?

I could really us some outside inputs here?

BAC Buy?

1. Sell - Likely drop further if there is further economic contagion in Europe or other bond downgrades of blue states like California.
2. Buy - Getting capitalized like never before in the last few years.
3. Buy - Housing has bottomed.    Therefore future foreclosures will be higher priced and easier to unload.
4. Buy - Price is near a 26 week low.

ABT

1. Buy - Price is near a 26 week low.
2. Buy - This is one of the most recommended analyst stocks of the year?
3. Buy - Will not likely continue lower in a bear market as it is low
4. Sell - Lawsuit risk 128 million or so.    Large amount.    Need more research here.

What to Do With the Socks to the Right?

From technical analysis and fidelity tools:

Buy
ABT
CSCO
PEP

Sell
DD
KO
VZ

Not sure if I will act on any of this information.

What will the Bears Bring Out for This Correction

The Bears are Reloading:
-Market is high and there is a long way down to summer lows.   Risk lower seems less than higher for the markets
-Finally there is something brewing - IRELAND!    Not sure how real this will end up being.
-China, Australia raising interest rates.   Not really sure this is bad for US when you look out months
-Israel and Iran are unusually quite.
-CALIFORNIA STATE DECLARES BANKRUPSY!    just kidding but someone is going to post something like this and the market will react.   California, New Jersey, Ohio and populous "Blue" states still are running unsustainable deficits
-European pop-ups from the banking issues from PIIGS.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
-Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
-Market is at a 2 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.

Bulls:
-QEII - Stimulative Spending II bill is up for approval.
-Earnings are getting better
-Unemployment is starting to firm.
-EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
-Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has wisdom about depressions.
-More elected republicans will make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
-Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
-Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise only.

Let me know if you have any additional BULL or BEAR possibilities in mind?

New Thesis - Expect Overall Sector Correlations to Lessen in the Coming Year While Focusing More on Section Star Stock

I think this strange correlation that has been driven by the proliferation of Index Funds and ETFs to start ending.    All stocks are not equal and there should be larger focus on those outperformers in the coming years. 

How to Profit from the Upcoming Rise in Interest Rates? TBT?

I have put a limit order to purchase a call on TBT.    This strategy will work if there is a coming spike in interest rates.    As always with options the when is just as important as the how much.   With QEII ongoing rates could theoretically still drop some and there TBT which is an inverse correlated interest instrument.  Given that this instrument is traded daily it has a tendency to drop even if the index stays the same.   TBT is meant for day-traders and will continue to decrease even if interest rates only rise slowing.   So be carefull!

I would like to thank Rob for this interest rate rising thesis. 

 Other Options besides the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20:

1. VAW - Commodities ETF should rise as the dollar sinks

2. Real Estate - Prices should climb, but slowly as demand and the future realization that you can not build for that price starts to set in.   This will be a long strategy to control inflation.

 

 Do you know any other ways to profit from rising rates?   

Mortgagegate - The Bears Have One Now - Lawyers, Judges, States Hungry for Money, and Bad Bank Mortgage Paperwork

BAC, C, WFC, and others will all be stung as lawyers on varied levels step into to fix this problem.   Additionally, I am not sure there is much interest in the federal government to fix a problem that is occuring on many different governmental levels.    This little problem is complicated.

To provide a counterpoint to this mess going into the future.    I would assume this might take months to resolve existing issues, however I do not think the final decision to go into forclosure will change on these foreclosed properties.    I believe the underlying reason the foreclosure happened happened in the first place is homeowners have not payed their mortgage in months.    All the lawsuits in the world can not change that.    Still there will be a legal friction the banks will have to pay to get out of this.    The feds might want to consider creating a clearinghouse to analyses these cases in a more reasonable time frame.   My two cents anyways.   


I sold 200 shares of 900 shares of BAC in anticipation of lower prices to come.    I still believe in BAC as a viable company with great long term growth prospects.  

Let me know your thoughts.    I suspect I will need to update this blog a number of times as new information provides some clarity. 

How High will the DOW Go?

Analysts have been thoughing out lots of numbers.    I think there is still the possibility this could go to 12000.   After that one would want to check valuations and movements of money.   As long as there is movement from the bond bugs things could really bet bullish.    What are your thoughts?

Which Way Does the DOW GO!

Bears:
Running out of ammunition. 
Israel and Iran are unusually quite
California, New Jersey and populous states still are running unsustainable deficits
European pop-up from the banking issues.    Moody's or S&P downgrades possible.
Currency Wars to deflate currencies.   How will China, Brazil, and Japan continue to lower the Dollar?
Market is at a 5 month high.   Risk of a correction is real from a technical standpoint.

Bulls:
EU will just spend its way out of Banking issues.
Bernanke will spend his way out of the Recession.    He has wisdom about depressions.
QEII - Stimulative Spending II bill is up for approval.
More elected republicans will make DC more business friendly (less effective politicians)
Earnings are likely to push further higher on continued cutting and trimming of budgets
Europe risk has calmed down and become background noise only.

Let me know your opinions?

Dow Up 200ish Today - Will We See the DOW Below This Point In The Coming Months

Starting to get nervous holding onto 17% cash.    Stocks that seem to not have taken place in the upsurge are: BAC WFC DIS MSFT NAT NBR NUE.    These can still be bought at a relatively low price.    The real question is whether they can still rise from here.?

When is the next MARKET PULLBACK? 17% Cash Level Now and Waiting

Bought some NUE and considering NAT.   Both remain low in this latest market ascent.    Bank stocks look cheap right now but still have hair related to financial reforms and Euro confusion.  

Hope I will not be waiting for a pullback that will never occur.    When there is a pullback I will be moving to buy calls on high tech items like ADSK, AAPL, GOOG, CRM and the like if there is a large enough downturn.  

Technology Stocks Seem To Be Starting Their XMAS Ascent!

Is this just another summer rally or are stocks about to start upwards.   AAPL, GOOG, ADSK, all seem to be topping their summer trading range.    The market seems to be breaking out of the summer doldrums and moving more towards real valuations when considering GROWTH.    Dividend stocks have already made the move forward.    Dividend stocks generally have less risk, but with their current valuations that is debatable.   Technology could become to trade with the least risk.     Let me know your thoughts?

Inflection Point in Summer Doldrums Approaching

I am preparing to start buying on the next weekness in the market.     I think there is plenty of room to run towards previously achieved April Dow Closes.  

What is going to be the case for the Bear Market or short sellers?

1. European Bank Issues - This will remain a bogus argument without specific details of issues.
2. Unemployment - There is slight improvement in employment and moving towards the xmas season more hiring should also take place.    Just not that the unemployment seems high is just BOGUS and really should not be able to put additional downward pressure on the market. 
3. Obama Financial Reform?   Administration has a vested interest in a rising stock market.
4. Obama Healthcare?   Administration has a vested interest in a rising stock market. 

Let me know what your thoughts are?

Gut Check of Buys and Sells @ Cash Level 14%

From my list of existing stocks and looking at the one year charts:
Sells:

1. PM - Low beta stock which has had a great run.   Maybe a time to start taking profits?    Hard to tell and this has a great dividend yield.
2. DD - Dupont is definitely getting high.    
3. CAT - Obama stimulus might still input some upside to this heavy construction supplier.
4. CSX - This Rail stock also gets upward movement with the economy.
5. PEP - Both high
6. KO - Pretty high
7. All of these sell stocks have high dividends and charts show they are relatively high right now so one could take some profits.

Buys:

1. INTC - Low price if recovery starts to kick in again.   This stock will have to absorb a new acquisition so could be low for a while. 
2. BAC, WFC - Banks seem crazy low right now.    Obama bank reform is still getting absorbed, so the risk on these stocks seems too large. 
3. ABT - Drug stocks should start to move again.
4. BDX - Relatively low price and really is health care reform resistant given it supplies standard health care needs not exotic new drugs.
5. ABT - Health care seems undervalued relative to the rest of the market.    I would expect some sector rotation to take place short term to move health care stocks further up.
6. NAT - Oil prices will probably slowly move forward, so not expecting this to move too fast.
7. INTC - Purchased another company so there could still be some temporary downsides.
8. All of these buy stocks seem really low right now if we are really in an economic expansion.

Holds:

1. The rest of my stocks to the right are generally holds.

20100910-Bought some BAC today at 13.59.  

20100910-Sold some CIM at 4.04 as its Ex Dividend Day is fast approaching.    Would like to get back into CIM if there is a good pullback in stocks.

Dow at 10268 Again - Is this a Buy or Sell

Seems like there has been a sector rotation into SECULAR stocks like - PM, MO, KO, PEP, GIS and the like.   Is it time to start loading up on something cheap and CYCLICAL like - NUE, NAT, BA and the like.    They certainly are cheap, but the economy will have real problems with thes cyclicals.

Let me know your thoughts.    I am just frozen about whether to buy or sell.    The market dynamics seem still poised in a trading range.

Time to Start Buying on the Way Down To 9400

I bought some GS on a limit order yesterday.    Probably some room for this stock to go down still more, but no one ever knows exactly when the market is at a bottom.  

I also sold some KO today to keep my cash position up.   

Time to start thinking about BUYING AGAIN.

DOW 9400 might not be seen again.   Who knows.    I started some buying already.

I Bought 100 shares of INTC.

Let me know your thoughts.

Market Pergatory - In about the middle of the overall market trading range.

So not a strong buy or strong sell right now.    I bought some BAC yesterday even higher than today just because the banks seem so beaten up.   

Technology seems like a good options as well.    APPL, GOOG, YHOO, ADSK seem like some potential buys especially since they have been so beaten up lately as well.  

Sold FSAGX - Gold Mining Mutual Fund Today. I Think Gold is Almost DONE!

Why wait for the crash out of gold?   In the 80s the price declines were much more violent than the uptrend.    Bulls and Bears will argue whether gold is priceless or worthless?    I think the bears will be gaining traction on the case that gold is worthless shortly. 

Case for Bears:
*What can you do with GOLD?
*Gold has already had a great fun.   How much further can it rally.
*What will happen when people start selling gold - ETFs, Gold Mining Stocks.....
*It could get really ugly real fast when the selling starts.
*VIX keeps decreasing.     Time passing seems to be against the Gold Bugs.
*Deflation is a larger problem for the near future than inflation
*The correlation of Gold as an inflation hedge does not seem to be credible anymore
*Fear is decreasing as evidenced by drop in VIX
*What will happen if there becomes a stampede out of Gold.   After all this is a commodity without any real practical use.  
*EURO is on its way again to be considered a Reserve Currency again.

Case for Bulls:
*Inflation hedge
*Indian wedding season starts in May
*Gold always retains value
*What has more value a nation IOU like the Dollar or GOLD?
*Developing nations keep devaluing their currencies by continued money printing.

Let me know your thoughts?

Monday July 26th Trading Will Likely Start with Some Selling

Given analysts will have had some time to review the European Stress Tests and start descovering some holes in the test.    We will see?

Sold 100 Shares of CLNE and Bought 2 Calls -CLNE 110122 C15

This should produce twice the upside with half the downside risk.   Again here I am raising about $2000.00 by doing both of these transactions.   I still think the summer duldrums will continue from 9400 to 10400 or maybe slightly higher.     Mostly I think tomorrow will be a down day given the announcement of the EURO Bank Stress Tests.    Bears and sceptics will beat up whatever the results are.       Time will tell if I am right?

Waiting for DOW 9400-9700 To Start Buying

I think earnings reports can no longer be expected to just be better than expected any longer.    Analysts are catching up to the market.   So, I will start purchasing again at DOW 9800 and try to make sure I have enough cash to keep buying through 9400.    Then the BULL DANCERS better be out there again.   

Cramer Thinks We Are Out of the Summer Duldrums?

Are the Macro Issues behind us now.   Cramers thinks we are in bull market mode again and this should represent the lows for the year.    Completed items:

1. fine print on fin reg
2. Spanish bank stabilization
3. oil spill resolution
4. confirmation of china's soft landing
5. european stabilization

Uncompleted items:

1. lower unemployment

So, what is the verdict.   I think this is a possibility however there still seems to be a lot of work to be done in Europe.    There could easily be another Euro bomb like a failed bank that will start the Bear Press up again.   Let me know your thoughts. 

DOW 10400 - Market High for Summer Duldrums - Time to GET SELLING!

I sold some ED and am searching for anything else so sell.    I will be looking to scale into buying after earnings season is done and the Market Noise starts stepping up.   

Traders Market - Summer Duldrums Continue - Buy at DOW 9400 - Sell at DOW 10400

I will continue to be operate like a trader during this uncertain summer till September.    I believe that the bulls and bears continue to be locked into a match that will not get resolved this summer.   Additionally, given the volatility within the markets, I believe cash should be raised to 5%-10% at DOW 9400 and 20%-30% at DOW 10400.   Additionally, I am seriously considering re-allocations from actual stocks into purchasing call options.   This strategy should be especially good at controlling risk and profiting from the market volatility.   In my case this involves high beta stocks like CLNE, AAPL, ADSK, etc.   If I do not need to change this strategy one should be able to make some money using this trading range.       

Bought Some KFN at 7.87 today Through a Limit Order...

This stock should move forward.    However, the stock currently seems to have a large beta as correlated with the broader market.    There could be further lowering of KFN if the broader market drops further.

Why does the market continue the UPWARDS march?

I am currently in a waiting pattern to buy stocks. Hopefully, I will not have to wait too long otherwise, I may have to go buy and higher than ordinary expected pricing.

I Sold My AAPL Oct 2010 250.000 call Today....

This would follow my semi distrust of the market and short term expectation that things may still go lower.   Additionally, this follows my summer trading concept that the DOW will zig zag between 9600 and 10500 probably through August.    So to make money in this type of market I will continue to trade options on my high BETA stocks like AAPL and ADSK.    I should be applying getting more involved in buying puts as well given I currently do not have any.    Lastly, I will continue to hold onto my high dividend large stable big caps like BA, NUE, VZ, and the like.     Let me know what your thoughts are? 

Let me Count the Ways this Stock Market Sucks

Given I am an optimist and want stocks to go in the right direction, there is not much to like.    Add Hungary, and Iran Sanctions to equation coupled with the investing communities anticipation of another EU Oops and there is not much room to go up.   Time may be the best healer of the current bear dance happening on Wall Street.   Soon investors will become accustomed to this amount of volitility and the VIX will start to drop?   We just need a large drop in the markets to define an inflection point.   

Any other ideas about how this market will change?

When will the Thousand Bull Dances Start Up Again????

1000 Bull Dances does not seem like an event happening any time soon.    According to Cramer's yesterday program there are a number of issues still to be resolved. 

fine print on financial regulation

Spanish Bank Stabilization

Lower Unemployment

Oil Spill Resolution

Confirmation of China's Soft Landing

European Stabilitization

On top of this I would add some of my own anecdotes:

Enough time to get traders used to the New Volatility

No more additional issues spooking the markets from: Israel, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Iraq

Strong mid year earnings season

Let me know if you can think of additional items........

How to Profit from a Volitile Market - OPTIONS

It seems like having enough cash around to take advantage when the next shoe drops - Iran, Venezuala, Rhode Island, California, Israel, BP, EURO, China, Commercial Real Estate, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain, Greece.....

So I am going to raise continue to raise cash on the bumps up and buy call on the lows.    I like purchasing Call Options in AAPL, BP, ADSK, and the like.    Assuming the bulls will return one day you will at least have profit and have some cash on the side as well.   Let me know your thoughts.

Future Themes - Internet Psunami (Cramer)

Given there are so many new gadgets out there especially among portable devices - cell phones, net books, readers, and the like; there will likely be a shortage of the hardware that goes into these devices.